The Way Trump Achieved a Gaza Breakthrough That Escaped Joe Biden
At first, Israel's air strike on the Hamas militant negotiating team in Doha appeared like another escalation that pushed the prospect of a ceasefire out of reach.
The attack on 9 September violated the sovereignty of an US partner and threatened widening the conflict into a region-wide war.
Diplomacy appeared to be collapsing.
However, it turned out to be a key moment that has led in a deal, announced by Donald Trump, to release all captives still held.
This is a goal that Trump, and Joe Biden before him, had sought for almost 24 months.
It is just the initial phase towards a lasting resolution, and the details of disarming Hamas, Gaza governance and complete Israeli pullout remain to be negotiated.
Yet if this deal holds, it could be Trump's defining accomplishment of his second term - one that eluded Biden and his diplomatic team.
The president's distinct approach and key alliances with Israel and the Arab world appear to have played a role in this success.
But, as with many foreign policy wins, there were also elements involved beyond the influence of either man.
A Close Relationship Which Biden Never Had
Publicly, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.
Trump often states that the nation has no greater ally, and the Israeli leader has described Trump as the country's "greatest ever ally in the US presidency". And these positive statements have been backed up by deeds.
Throughout his initial time in office, Trump relocated the US embassy in the country from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and abandoned a traditional American stance that Jewish communities in the Palestinian West Bank are against international law, the position under international law.
After the Israeli military began its bombing campaign against Iran in June, Trump directed American aircraft to target the Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities with its most powerful conventional bombs.
These visible shows of backing may have given Trump the room to apply more influence on Israel behind the scenes. According to reports, Trump's envoy, his representative, pressured the prime minister in the latter part of the year into accepting a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the freeing of some hostages.
After Israeli forces attacked against Syria's military in July, including bombing a Christian church, the US president urged his counterpart to alter tactics.
Trump exhibited a degree of determination and pressure on an Israel's leader that is rarely seen, according to an analyst of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It's unheard of of an American president directly instructing an Israeli prime minister that they must agree or else."
Biden's relationship with Netanyahu's government was consistently more strained.
The Biden team's "close embrace approach" argued that the US had to embrace Israel publicly in order to allow it to moderate the country's war conduct in private.
Beneath this was Biden's nearly half-century of backing for the state, as well as deep disagreements within his political base over the Gaza War. Each move Biden took risked dividing his own political backing, while his successor's solid Republican base gave him more flexibility to act.
Ultimately, domestic politics or personal relationships may have had little impact than the simple fact that, throughout Biden's presidency, Israel was not ready to reach an agreement.
Several months into Trump's second term, with Iran weakened, the militant group to its immediate north significantly reduced and Gaza in ruins, every one of its major strategy objectives had been accomplished.
Commercial Background Assisted Gain Gulf's Backing
An Israeli strike in Doha, which killed a Qatari citizen but not the intended targets, prompted Trump to issue an final demand to the prime minister. Hostilities had to stop.
Trump had given the Israeli military a relatively free hand in the territory. He lent American military might to Israeli operations in Iran. But an attack on Qatari territory was a separate issue entirely, pushing him towards the stance of Arab nations on how best to end the war.
Several Trump officials have told media outlets that this was a decisive moment which galvanised the president to apply full force to get a peace deal done.
The leader's strong connections with the Arab monarchies are well documented. Trump has commercial interests with the emirate and the United Arab Emirates. He began each of his administrations with state visits to the kingdom. Recently, he also stopped in Doha and Abu Dhabi.
His normalization agreements, which established ties between the Jewish state and a number of Arab nations, such as the Emirates, was the most significant foreign policy success of his initial presidency.
The time he spent in the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula earlier this year helped shift his perspective, says Ed Husain of the Council on Foreign Relations. Trump did not travel to Israel on this Middle East trip but visited the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar where the leader heard consistent appeals to bring an end to the conflict.
Less than a month after that Israeli strike on the city, Trump was present nearby as Netanyahu himself phoned the Qatari leadership to apologise. Subsequently, the Israeli leader signed off on Trump's 20-point peace plan for the territory - one that additionally had the support of influential Arab states in the region.
Assuming Trump's alliance with his counterpart gave him the ability to pressure the government to reach an agreement, his past with Muslim leaders may have secured their backing, and assisted them persuade Hamas to commit to the arrangement.
"A key factor that evidently occurred was that the US leader gained influence with the Israelis, and indirectly with the militants," notes Jon Alterman of the a research center.
"This was crucial. His ability to do this on his own schedule, and avoid yielding to the demands of the warring sides has been a problem that many earlier administrations have faced, and Trump appears to handle relatively successfully."
The fact that Trump is much more popular in the nation than Netanyahu himself was an advantage that he employed to his advantage, the expert continues.
Currently Israel has committed to freeing more than 1,000 detainees held in its jails and has consented to a limited pullback from the strip.
The group will free all the remaining hostages, both alive and deceased, taken during the initial October 7 assault, which caused the loss of more than 1,200 Israeli citizens.
An end to the war, which has resulted in the destruction of Gaza and the fatalities of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal