Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.