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Amid the immense confusion following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.